Saturday, December 6, 2008
So the rate of charge offs and delinquencies for RE loans is still more than doubling on a YoY basis, but the good news appears to be that the rate loans are going bad stopped accelerating...the question being, is this a real trend change or hiccup (as CRE appears to be really hitting the wall in 4Q2008, spending declines by consumers, more layoffs, etc.)?
Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. For more information, see "BLS introduces new range of alternative unemployment measures," in the October 1995 issue of the Monthly Labor Review. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.
For the August post on U-6
Friday, November 28, 2008
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Also, it seemed to me a normalized view of the debt structure would be informative. Here is the percentage of the Treasury marketable debt for each component over the time series. Again, interesting trends emerge - the relative proportion of T Bills was falling in the October report 2002-2007 s total debt was steadily climbing - until 2008, with an explosion of short term debt.
(NB: The Treasury debt under consideration is the Marketable category, which the debt held by the public, other CB's etc. Hat tip to PeakVT for pointing that out. Also, some graph improvements done for today's post courtesy of Mel and Comrade Counterpointer's suggestion.)
(Addendum: MLM clarification - we are at a tipping point, some external event is needed to trigger the change from a 'status quo' approach to rollover in the Treasury market - then lookout.)
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Friday, October 3, 2008
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Saturday, September 13, 2008
This is the state of gasoline stocks BEFORE Hurricane Ike.
Res ipsa loquitur.
OK, a bit of elaboration since it probably is not as self-evident as it seems to me. See the links below about the Colonial pipeline being shut in, and the extensive damage to the backbone of the electrical grid by Hurricane Ike. That ties in with the gasoline distribution system being very near Minimum Operating Level (MOL).
This is the point where bits of the system for moving gasoline around start shutting down because there is not enough physically present to make it flow through the supply chain. That level is around 170 million barrels or so but that is at the national level - it is very large and complex and not in perfect balance, so we are going to be experiencing localized shut downs and gasoline shortages starting now...
Graphic produced by Energy Information Administration
EIA Petroleum Week in Review: Gasoline
Dow Jones Newswire report on Ike related transmission line damage
Ike Leaves Widespread Power Outages; Review Begins
Reuters report on Colonial Pipeline closure
Colonial says oil product pipelines shut due to Ike
Sunday, August 17, 2008
The BLS data series that gets most of the press is the headline unemployment rate, or U-3 (seasonally adjusted). With the structural changes in the economy which would seem to result in undercounting issues in how U-3 is calculated, many folks have started giving U-6 some attention(U-6 casts the net very broadly, in particular folks who are involuntarily part time).
This plot is based on U-6 unadjusted, the year over year percent change in the value - so if the value in July, 2007 was 5% and then the value in July, 2008 was 6% this would be a 20% increase on this plot - declines in the unemployment rate would be a negative value. On a rate of change basis, we are where we were at around September, 2001 only with a U-6 value that is 10.8%(7/2008) instead of 8.2%(9/2001). The Federal Funds rate in 9/2001 started the month at 3.5%, ended the month at 3% on the way to 1%...
Friday, August 1, 2008
The nominal GDP growth for 1Q2008 was $119.6 billion, represented as a real annualized GDP growth rate of 0.9%.
The nominal growth for 2Q2008 was $105.7 billion, represented as a real annualized GDP growth rate of 1.9%.
A nominal decline QoQ of 11.6% is equal to a real annualized QoQ increase in rate of 111% - that is some change in deflator kids! Can anyone clearly define what state change occurred to make that kind of change in the deflator? Anyone? Buehler?
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: Second Quarter 2008 (Advance)
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 3.0 percent, or $105.7 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $14,256.5 billion. In the first quarter,current-dollar GDP increased 3.5 percent, or $119.6 billion.
Technical Note Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter of 2008 (Advance), July 31, 2008
Real GDP increased 1.9 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter (that is, fromthe first quarter to the second), following an increase of 0.9 percent (revised) inthe first quarter.
This is another bit of Fed data, though this is from the main FRB web site. This update is looking at the rate of change of the percent of real estate loans that are delinquent on a year over year basis...so if we go from 2% to 4% YoY that would be a 100% rate of change.
What we see is continued acceleration from the very low base we started from - the question is once this has been underway for awhile when will it start to slow down? If we get to 6% and a year later the rate is 9% that would be 50% on the plot, the rate of delinquency won't actually be improving until the line goes under the 0% baseline.
I am curious if there is a secular change in the works, as the spread since about 1980 has bottomed at a lower point in each expansion until the latest one...maybe related to the reduction in labor force participation by women that is occuring (no value judgement there, just the observation).
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Thursday, April 10, 2008
I got to fiddling around with data series from FRED, the St Louis Fed online data source and got curious about the spread between the CIVPART series, which is the labor participation rate, and the EMRATIO series, which is the employed as a percent of the population. I eyeballed the recession bands and layered them in, I need to learn how my infoporn hero CR does his recession bands... in any case, it seems whenever this spread is coming off of a local minima we are going into a recession, period. How much and how long... quien sabe?
Friday, April 4, 2008
Here is the USPRIV, which is from the same source and plots the total of all private sector employees % change year over year:
Here is the UNEMPLOY series plot of the % change over year ago - we have just breached a level that appears to be associated with recessions when coming from a bottom in the unemployment rate - there is one time we reached it back in the late '60s without a breach that did not result in a recession...take a look and draw your own conclusions.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
The yellow line is Commercial Real Estate, ex-farmland. The base data is the delinquency rate, and the rate of change of the delinquency rate is what we are looking at YoY
I ginned up the plot in OpenOffice and had some problems getting the dates on the bottom axis to display correctly in the image I uploaded, and this is a first feeble attempt to get a plot online to share it with Stagflationary Mark at http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/
Hopefully I will get better at this with time!