Friday, April 4, 2008

One more unnecessary recession indicator post

Well today we had the third job loss month in a row, with some material revisions to the previous two months numbers - downward - which got me curious about the FRED plots from the St Louis Fed...

Here is the USPRIV, which is from the same source and plots the total of all private sector employees % change year over year:

Here is the UNEMPLOY series plot of the % change over year ago - we have just breached a level that appears to be associated with recessions when coming from a bottom in the unemployment rate - there is one time we reached it back in the late '60s without a breach that did not result in a recession...take a look and draw your own conclusions.

Seems to me the question now, as so many others have also posed is which mix of short/long and shallow/deep are we going to have with this recession? Talk amongst yourselves.

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