Wednesday, April 29, 2009

WHO Laboratory Confirmed A/H1N1 Cases

Well the World Health Organization just raised the Pandemic Alert Level to 5 from 4 (the raise to 4 was yesterday). Here is a graph of the laboratory confirmed cases of A/H1Na1, the flu previously known as "Swine."

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Treasury Marketable Debt Maturity Redux

UPDATE: the change in total marketable debt has been added (ht MrM)

Here is the end of 1Q2009 US Treasury marketable debt maturity plot - I have decided to update this quarterly - this makes the quarterly roll structure easiest to maintain and analyze.

  • It is still a front end loaded beast as it ever was, only more so...

  • The rate of growth for the next quarter roll doubles in six quarters (five to go!) if maintained at the 12.8% seen between the end of 4Q2008 and the end of 1Q2009

  • The rate of growth for the combined front two quarters roll shows a growth rate of 10.3%, which is weighted to the first quarter

The post showing the EOY 2008 maturity plot:

Saturday, April 4, 2009

EMRATIO Rate of Change and CIVPART-EMRATIO Update

OK the rate of change YoY for the 3 month MA of EMRATIO is officially into uncharted an update on the CIVPART-EMRATIO spread.
The lag in the peak of the spread in the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions is not seen in previous recessions, which may be a function of structural changes in the economy (read: the hollowing out of manufacturing). Also, there are not enough data points to determine a trend, but it appears that the lag is lengthening in duration...

U-6: Year Over Year Changes - Continued Deterioration

U-6 not seasonally adjusted continues to deteriorate at an accelerating pace on a Year Over Year basis. Also, the Month Over Month January-March change violates the seasonal directionality of the last ten years (a 0.8% increase vs. -0.6 decrease on average excluding this year).

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Fast Food Stamps for Scone

Well the discussion in CR on a reference to food stamp enrollment went the way I roll - what does the *data* show us - here without further ado is the year over year change in inidvidual food stamp enrollment for the very limited data set available on: