Friday, August 1, 2008
Real Estate Loan Delinquency Rates - CHGDEL update on rate of change
This is another bit of Fed data, though this is from the main FRB web site. This update is looking at the rate of change of the percent of real estate loans that are delinquent on a year over year basis...so if we go from 2% to 4% YoY that would be a 100% rate of change.
What we see is continued acceleration from the very low base we started from - the question is once this has been underway for awhile when will it start to slow down? If we get to 6% and a year later the rate is 9% that would be 50% on the plot, the rate of delinquency won't actually be improving until the line goes under the 0% baseline.