Thursday, April 10, 2008

Local Minima in the CIVPART-EMRATIO Spread (with thanks to the St Louis Fed -I like FRED!)

Here is another look at yet more data suggesting that we are indeed entering a recession - just in case the most recent new claims report has you questioning whether that is the case or no - I welcome speculation on the explanatory side of this...

I got to fiddling around with data series from FRED, the St Louis Fed online data source and got curious about the spread between the CIVPART series, which is the labor participation rate, and the EMRATIO series, which is the employed as a percent of the population. I eyeballed the recession bands and layered them in, I need to learn how my infoporn hero CR does his recession bands... in any case, it seems whenever this spread is coming off of a local minima we are going into a recession, period. How much and how long... quien sabe?

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