Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Industrial Production - Capacity and Utilization Rate

We just had the latest industrial capacity utilization rate released, with a microscopic 0.1% uptick in capacity utilization month over month...but are things getting busier, or are we shedding capacity faster?

This is a look at the year over year change in the industrial capacity from the Fed, using the total index. Looks like we set another record here...

Monday, November 16, 2009

Year Over Year Change in Total Revolving Credit Outstanding

This is total revolving credit, non-seasonally adjusted. When you look at the data month over month there is strong seasonality exhibited, so the non-seasonally adjusted numbers are best viewed year over year.

When the retail season is considered, let's look at private wage income, revolving credit and...? Any suggestions welcome to answer the question, "Show me the money?" - what the heck are consumers going to spend?

Monday, November 9, 2009

Personal Income: Private Wages Year Over Year Change

An assertion was made regarding private sector wages going up - can't see it from this data from NIPA Table 2.1...

Saturday, November 7, 2009

U-6 Update

So here is the latest U-6, unadjusted 16.3% which becomes a seasonally adjusted 17.5%

Now we examine the year over year change in the unadjusted U-6, and while the rate of change is declining from the peak (due to the elevated prior year base now that we are almost two years into this recession) it is still in excess of the peak from the prior recession. Also, recall that the absolute level of U-6 unemployment is still increasing year over year until the graph goes below the 0% line.

The spread between U-3 and U-6 remains elevated.

EMRATIO - Continued negative acceleration Year Over Year

Almost two years into the recession, the rate of the year over year decline in the EMRATIO is actually accelerating...using the most recent recession as a guide, the peak rate of change for EMRATIO occurred about 36% of the way through the EMRATIO decline associated with that recession. If this month is the peak year over year rate of change and that relationship holds, then we would begin to see improvements in EMRATIO about 51 months from October, 2009 or about January, 2014.