Saturday, December 6, 2008

Charge-off and Delinquency Rates from the Fed

Third quarter shows a slowing in the rate of acceleration of real estate loan charge-offs and delinquencies - again, this plot is looking at the rate of change of the rate of change - what was the delta in CHGDEL over the starting number (going from 4% to 5% is +25%, going from 5% to 4% is -20%). The total percent of loans going bad will be going up until this plot crosses the zero line.

So the rate of charge offs and delinquencies for RE loans is still more than doubling on a YoY basis, but the good news appears to be that the rate loans are going bad stopped accelerating...the question being, is this a real trend change or hiccup (as CRE appears to be really hitting the wall in 4Q2008, spending declines by consumers, more layoffs, etc.)?