Treasury Marketable Debt Maturity Redux

UPDATE: the change in total marketable debt has been added (ht MrM)

Here is the end of 1Q2009 US Treasury marketable debt maturity plot - I have decided to update this quarterly - this makes the quarterly roll structure easiest to maintain and analyze.

• It is still a front end loaded beast as it ever was, only more so...


• The rate of growth for the next quarter roll doubles in six quarters (five to go!) if maintained at the 12.8% seen between the end of 4Q2008 and the end of 1Q2009


• The rate of growth for the combined front two quarters roll shows a growth rate of 10.3%, which is weighted to the first quarter

The post showing the EOY 2008 maturity plot:

http://energyecon.blogspot.com/2009/01/treasury-marketable-debt-maturity.html

EMRATIO Rate of Change and CIVPART-EMRATIO Update

OK the rate of change YoY for the 3 month MA of EMRATIO is officially into uncharted waters...plus an update on the CIVPART-EMRATIO spread.

The lag in the peak of the spread in the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions is not seen in previous recessions, which may be a function of structural changes in the economy (read: the hollowing out of manufacturing). Also, there are not enough data points to determine a trend, but it appears that the lag is lengthening in duration...

U-6: Year Over Year Changes - Continued Deterioration

U-6 not seasonally adjusted continues to deteriorate at an accelerating pace on a Year Over Year basis. Also, the Month Over Month January-March change violates the seasonal directionality of the last ten years (a 0.8% increase vs. -0.6 decrease on average excluding this year).

Fast Food Stamps for Scone

Well the discussion in CR on a reference to food stamp enrollment went the way I roll - what does the *data* show us - here without further ado is the year over year change in inidvidual food stamp enrollment for the very limited data set available on:
http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm

EMRATIO - More Back to the Future

There I was, blissing on the latest chart and info posted on Calculated Risk, and the point was made by the commentariat (ht Evil Henry Paulson IIRC) that EMRATIO was the real tell regarding the state of the economy in the US...so I had to update my CIVPART-EMRATIO spread chart, which shows continued widening.

But then I got to thinking about the change in EMRATIO, so I smoothed things a bit by making a 3 Month Moving Average, and then took the Year Over Year change in that to generate the second plot. For rate of change, this recession is in there with the best of them and out does the double dip of the 80's - what it does not have (so far) is duration...

Port of Los Angeles TEU Volumes Year Over Year

Over at Calculated Risk yesterday there was a post on the TEU traffic at the Port of Los Angeles, with lots o' discussion on what was going on. I prefer the Year Over Year view of this sort of data, which accounts for seasonal variability in the month to month changes. This plot is the rate of change for the YoY (3 month MA), so the absolute level of TEU volumes is still climbing if the plot is above 0%. Below 0%, there is an absolute decline in YoY TEU volumes, though the MoM number could still be up (just lower than the same month in the previous year)

1. Total (In + Out) TEU volumes began declining in absolute terms prior to the start of the recession, have been doing so continuously since that start, and recently began moving sharply downward


2. There was a period of flat to mild decline in YoY TEU volumes in 4Q2004 to 3Q2005


3. In the last recession (2001), while the rate of growth significantly declined, it did not go negative (3 month MA of TEU volumes)

The Calculated Risk post:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/la-port-import-traffic-collapses-in.html

U-6's Disturbing Seasonal Trend

U-6 non-seasonally adjusted has become my weathervane for employment distress, and there are two disturbing trends (in addition to the value being too damn high at 16%!):

1. The rate of change reaccelerated (the second derivative increased) - we need to see that start to come down or at least stabilize for that light in the tunnel be daylight and not train.


2. The seasonal trend should be for the absolute value to decline going into the first quarter, but it is not - it is increasing - not good.

This is what I am talking about - unfortunately, the time series is somewhat limited for U-6 - but as you can see, even through the last recession the seasonal pattern of a Month Over Month decline held. Things are different this time.