Over at Calculated Risk yesterday there was a post on the TEU traffic at the Port of Los Angeles, with lots o' discussion on what was going on. I prefer the Year Over Year view of this sort of data, which accounts for seasonal variability in the month to month changes. This plot is the rate of change for the YoY (3 month MA), so the absolute level of TEU volumes is still climbing if the plot is above 0%. Below 0%, there is an absolute decline in YoY TEU volumes, though the MoM number could still be up (just lower than the same month in the previous year)
- Total (In + Out) TEU volumes began declining in absolute terms prior to the start of the recession, have been doing so continuously since that start, and recently began moving sharply downward
- There was a period of flat to mild decline in YoY TEU volumes in 4Q2004 to 3Q2005
- In the last recession (2001), while the rate of growth significantly declined, it did not go negative (3 month MA of TEU volumes)
The Calculated Risk post:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/la-port-import-traffic-collapses-in.html
3 comments:
Can the data be graphed monthly, like CR does with housing sales?
Horizontal access jan - dec, each year a different color
Thanks
Like this
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SYHGrR330lI/AAAAAAAAEaI/xDL35Qk-GWQ/s1600-h/NHSDec2009NSA.jpg
Issue: Tanker lay-ups
Task: chart porn
Summary:
First 3 sites indicate extent of problem and suggest trade vaccuum as cause. Next 2 sites suggest alternate explainations. Last site is best source for ongoing chart porn.
http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-world/20090308/INTERNATIONAL-US-PHILIPPINES-SHIPS/
http://www.vinamaso.net/news-events/shipping-logistics/mol-idles-5500-teu-ships-cold-lay-up.html
http://www.joc.com/node/409513
http://inthesenewtimes.com/2009/03/13/report-presents-doomsday-scenario-for-shipping/
http://www.joc.com/mublog/20090306
Trade well
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