Saturday, April 4, 2009

EMRATIO Rate of Change and CIVPART-EMRATIO Update

OK the rate of change YoY for the 3 month MA of EMRATIO is officially into uncharted an update on the CIVPART-EMRATIO spread.
The lag in the peak of the spread in the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions is not seen in previous recessions, which may be a function of structural changes in the economy (read: the hollowing out of manufacturing). Also, there are not enough data points to determine a trend, but it appears that the lag is lengthening in duration...

1 comment:

Hollis Polk said...

and please, what is CIVPART? thanks.