Sunday, April 12, 2009

Treasury Marketable Debt Maturity Redux

UPDATE: the change in total marketable debt has been added (ht MrM)

Here is the end of 1Q2009 US Treasury marketable debt maturity plot - I have decided to update this quarterly - this makes the quarterly roll structure easiest to maintain and analyze.

  • It is still a front end loaded beast as it ever was, only more so...

  • The rate of growth for the next quarter roll doubles in six quarters (five to go!) if maintained at the 12.8% seen between the end of 4Q2008 and the end of 1Q2009

  • The rate of growth for the combined front two quarters roll shows a growth rate of 10.3%, which is weighted to the first quarter

The post showing the EOY 2008 maturity plot:


SoYouThinkYouCanInvest said...

Wow scary chart. The scarier part is that not only will another trillion be added onto that schedule by year's end, but that the treasuries they are auctioning are predominately short term (several weeks to several months) and thus will show right back up on the chart soon enough. I give it a year - tops - before the math goes nuts and blows up.

Byzantine said...

Thanks for the effort you put into this!