U-6 non-seasonally adjusted has become my weathervane for employment distress, and there are two disturbing trends (in addition to the value being too damn high at 16%!):
- The rate of change reaccelerated (the second derivative increased) - we need to see that start to come down or at least stabilize for that light in the tunnel be daylight and not train.
- The seasonal trend should be for the absolute value to decline going into the first quarter, but it is not - it is increasing - not good.
This is what I am talking about - unfortunately, the time series is somewhat limited for U-6 - but as you can see, even through the last recession the seasonal pattern of a Month Over Month decline held. Things are different this time.