Saturday, August 22, 2009

U-6 Unemployment Stats Revisited

Here we have the unadjusted U-6 unemployment data, which hasn't been around all that long so the plots only go back a relatively short time. Also, I am looking at the Year Over Year (YoY) changes, so there is additional truncation of the first twelve months to keep the plots' timeframes aligned. There is clear seasonality exhibited, and the YoY look tells you what the changes are without muddying the waters with seasonal adjustments (inadvertantly or...advertantly?).

So looking at the YoY changes in both absolute and as a percentage change (new - old)/(old)can give some perspective on the rate of change, as evaluating the impact of a change is a function of both magnitude and the time it takes...and we can relate that to the previous plot of the U-6 unemployment rate.

Finally, I am still working out what the change in the relationship between the U-3 unadjusted rate of unemployment (the headline rate of unemployment) and the U-6 unadjusted rate means, but my WAG is that it is trying to tell us that the headline UE rate is understating the degree of economic distress being experienced by wage earners.

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