Wednesday, May 6, 2009

A/H1N1 Weekly Post 06 May 2009

Changing to a weekly view on this as it appears all of North America is in sustained community transmission mode. If this follows typical seasonal patterns it should start to trail off soon...otherwise, the peak new cases in the USA should occur around the end of June if the start was in the beginning of March (based on R0 of 1.6 and a world of other assumptions)

Hence the weekly view - here's hoping all the scoffers are correct - for this wave and in the Fall.

Image updated for Canada 06 May 2009 number (PHAC)

Adding link to unedited transcript of CDC presser today:

Adding link: WHO updated guidance on pandemic preparedness and response


Wisdom Speaker said...

The ECDC is still claiming no sustained transmission in Europe.

California and probably other U.S. states are no longer trying to catch all cases via testing. They are aiming to collect statistical information, however.

Anecdotally, many doctors think the testing protocol is a waste of time and resources.

Growth in reported confirmed cases will slow due to unwillingness and inability to test everyone infected.

energyecon said...

Wisdom Speaker,

I would have to agree, as the probables are coming back confirmed at something like 99%?!

Overall assessment of effective R0, CAR and timing of likely peak hospitalizations if seasonal trends to not affect the progression of this wave would seem to be paramount atm.

From press sources, that is symptomatic population about 30% of exposed, that ballparks to an infection rate around 45%. Same source put hospitalizations at 5% of infected. If R0 is in the 1.4 to 1.6 range that should put peak new cases in 4 to 5 months from onset timeframe...what are we now, about a month or so in?

Rob Dawg said...

Looks a lot like the impending aircraft orders cancellation trend.

SoYouThinkYouCanInvest said...

These charts are starting to look scary. I don't know if I feel comfortable riding the subway to work any longer.

Nice site BTW. I added you to my links on my site. Cheers.