Saturday, January 10, 2009

Makes me go hmmmm....U6-U3 Spread (unadj.)

I was wondering about changes in the makeup of the labor force, and how the increase in contractors, temps and part-time might change how we view the headline (U3) unemployment rate, to wit "less is more." That is, incremental increases in the U3 unemployment rate might indicate larger negative impacts than they have in the past.
So I considered U-6, which casts the net much wider in considering unemployment, and far more of the "shadow unemployment." Which led me to the spread between the unadjusted U6 and U3 unemployment rates. Unfortunately, the time series I built is only ten years and captures one previous recession but the difference there is remarkable.


Rob Dawg said...

Yep, one of the reasons I don't post to CR anymore when he informed me in no uncertain terms that the calculations had no changed over the length on his graph when in fact the NILF and discouraged among others were indeed changed.

Nice blog.

energyecon said...

Hey Dawg!

What do you mean, in remission? ;-)