So I was looking at the Philly Fed conincident indices for the states on Calculated Risk this morning, and it got me to thinking I wanted to dig into the numbers... (usually when the trouble starts). Above, we have the 1 month and 3 month diffusion indices for the state coincident indices from the Philly Fed.
(data here: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/indexes/coincident/2012/CoincidentIndexes0712.pdf )
I wanted to see more trend activity and reduce the noise, so I took the 3 month diffusion index and examined the quarter over quarter (or 3 month) change in that value, plotted against NBER called recessions in the time series data available.
Conclusion: I observe a change of -50, a value that has previously only been represented in recessions.
3 comments:
Interesting. CR is not even on recession watch, while Mish thinks we are already in recession. Good stuff, ee.
Mish is usually right tekewin!
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EE,
Got a few minutes to update this graph?
And a warm invitation to join a few of the less nonsensical folk at my blog rather than trying to teach pigs to sing.
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