Monday, August 2, 2010

State Tax Revenues - Q1 2010 Year Over Year Increase Due to Tax Rate Increases

OK, this has been out for a few weeks and there has been no direct discussion in the press that I have found that the year over year increases in state tax revenues for Q1 2010 are completely due to legislated tax increases (taking the Rockefeller estimates of the revenue impacts of those increases as a given).

Here is the table from the most recent report on state tax revenues by the Rockefeller Institute:

above from Rockefeller Institute State Revenue Report, July, 2010 p. 15

Now, let us normalize the reported increases in that table with the estimates of the impacts of legislated tax rate increases. First, the estimated impacts:
During the January-March 2010 quarter, enacted tax changes increased state revenue by an estimated net of $4.9 billion compared to the same period in 2009.3 Personal income tax increases accounted for approximately $2.7 billion and sales tax for approximately $1.7 billion of the change.

Rockefeller Institute State Revenue Report, July, 2010 pp. 12-13

Now, the calculation of the impacts - taking the values for Personal Income Tax (PIT), Corporate Income Tax (CIT), Sales Tax and Total (which includes some other sources of revenue in addition to the three breakout categories):

Lots to think about here, but the most glaring question that arises is with respect to the retail revival that has been much reported in the business me the money.

Rockefeller Institute State Revenue Report, July, 2010