Treasury Marketable Debt Rollover Update

Well it's a "good news/bad news" story...the average tenor of the outstanding marketable debt has decreased as both the one quarter and cumulative two quarter rollover amount of debt have decreased. On the other hand, the marketable debt outstanding has increased by 6.0% over 3Q2009, slightly faster than the 5.6% increase in marketable debt in 2Q2009 (current quarter annualizes at ~26% rate of increase).

Though in examining the "good news", one wonders who is buying the long end of the curve at the current yields, when the information available in the press is that foreign central banks are moving to the shorter end...[sighs] ok maybe I'm not wondering too much...


Previous posts on Treasury marketable debt maturity:
2Q2009 Update
1Q2009 Update
4Q2008

EMRATIO - return to cliff diving?

The monthly reported value of EMRATIO took a relatively big leg down month over month of -0.4% in September, and the year over year comparison of the 3 month moving average is even more disconcerting as it represents the largest decrease for this recession and the seventh new all time record for the series...


Link to FRED for EMRATIO

Credit Growth in the Commerical Paper Market

Triggered by a Calculated Risk post on credit market indicators, this provides me with more information than the 30 day spread with respect to the commercial paper market...

Deficit as a % of Spending

A couple of critiques I received to the eye popping deficit plot I posted related to the nominal nature of the dollar values and the % of GDP etc. After some thought, there seemed to be some merit to the normalization over time argument, thought I think the % of expdenditures by the government is more meaningful than the GDP argument...for your viewing "pleasure".

U-6 Unemployment Stats Revisited

Here we have the unadjusted U-6 unemployment data, which hasn't been around all that long so the plots only go back a relatively short time. Also, I am looking at the Year Over Year (YoY) changes, so there is additional truncation of the first twelve months to keep the plots' timeframes aligned. There is clear seasonality exhibited, and the YoY look tells you what the changes are without muddying the waters with seasonal adjustments (inadvertantly or...advertantly?).




So looking at the YoY changes in both absolute and as a percentage change (new - old)/(old)can give some perspective on the rate of change, as evaluating the impact of a change is a function of both magnitude and the time it takes...and we can relate that to the previous plot of the U-6 unemployment rate.



Finally, I am still working out what the change in the relationship between the U-3 unadjusted rate of unemployment (the headline rate of unemployment) and the U-6 unadjusted rate means, but my WAG is that it is trying to tell us that the headline UE rate is understating the degree of economic distress being experienced by wage earners.

Distribution of Real Income Growth since 1980

Here is real income growth for households since 1980 in 2007 dollars showing the mean value for income in each quintile and the mean income for the top 5%, as found in the US Census Bureau Historical Income Tables - Households (Table H-3).


Link US Census data



Cost plot courtesy of Wiki, the spread above the CPI line shows how much real costs grew, and compare those rates to the real income growth rates above. The bow on the package would be debt, and the growth in debt service payments.
Link Wiki Inlation, Tuition, Medical Cares since 1978

Words Fail Me

Res ipsa loquitur