Treasury Marketable Debt Rollover Update

Here is the quarterly update to the Treasury rollover plot. "Good news" in the sense of being less bad, as the rate of increase has slowed on a quarterly basis and the maturity distribution of the change improved - unlike last quarter, the front quarter rollover grew at a slower pace than the total.


What is still distressing is the rate of growth. While the QoQ rate of growth declined to 5.6% from the previous quarter's 8.1%, this still annualizes out to ~24% growth rate (a three year doubling time for the marketable debt). As I like to look at YoY growth rates, I checked that and may go back to work up a recent YoY growth rate history...2Q YoY growth was 41%.


Previous US Treasury marketable debt posts
1Q 2009 update
4Q 2008 post

EMRATIO Year Over Year Decline - Uncharted Waters

In keeping with the KISS principle, I am currently paring back my different views of unemployment to the EMRATIO data from the St. Louis Fed FRED series...


Short version: the current rate of change for job losses as measured by the EMRATIO, or civilian employment to population, exceeds everything on the books by a wide margin - the energy shock recessions of the '70's, the double dip of the'80's - which appears to be even worse than it might otherwise seem as the economy is now strucuturally far more dependent on wage supported spending power.

BLS Birth/Death Model - 3 Month Cumulative Impact

Lots of discussion on the net effects of the Birth/Death model, here is my modest contribution. For the last three months, the cumulative impact of the B/D model has been to reduce the reported job loss by a third - there's your green shoot right there...

Personal Income Less Government Social Benefits - YoY Delta

More uncharted terrain - was reading some comment by-play on Calculated Risk, and the question of how good the two month uptick in Personal Income is was in play - for me, it is always back to the Year Over Year look as usual...


Hard to say things are improving by my lights...

Commercial Paper Outstandings - Wile E. Coyote Lives!

This first plot is from the Fed's latest release on the outstanding balance of commercial paper...
So what does that look like on a Year Over Year basis using the 3 month moving average, you say?

Green shoots indeed...

A/H1N1 Weekly Post 06 May 2009

Changing to a weekly view on this as it appears all of North America is in sustained community transmission mode. If this follows typical seasonal patterns it should start to trail off soon...otherwise, the peak new cases in the USA should occur around the end of June if the start was in the beginning of March (based on R0 of 1.6 and a world of other assumptions)

Hence the weekly view - here's hoping all the scoffers are correct - for this wave and in the Fall.

Image updated for Canada 06 May 2009 number (PHAC)

Adding link to unedited transcript of CDC presser today: http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=94020

Adding link: WHO updated guidance on pandemic preparedness and response http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/PIPGuidance09.pdf

Lab Confirmed A/H1N1 Cases - update

Latest numbers gleaned from WHO, CDC, ECDC, PHAC...

Added link: ht to Market Ticker Forum unedited CDC transcript from this afternoon http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=93578

Data request: Any curves similar to figure 2 in this ECDC paper - unfortunately this curve applies to the second wave of the 1918 influenza with an R0 of >3... need similar for R0=1.6 and R0=2.4 http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/files/pdf/Health_topics/Lessons_from_previous_pandemics.pdf

Great paper, hat tip Wisdom Speaker - translating the data from the log plots in this paper to the format from the ECDC paper is what I would truly like to see... http://www.pnas.org/content/103/15/5935.full.pdf+html