WHO Laboratory Confirmed A/H1N1 Cases - Update

According to WHO as of 1700 GMT 30 April 2009
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_30_a/en/index.html

WHO Laboratory Confirmed A/H1N1 Cases

Well the World Health Organization just raised the Pandemic Alert Level to 5 from 4 (the raise to 4 was yesterday). Here is a graph of the laboratory confirmed cases of A/H1Na1, the flu previously known as "Swine."

Treasury Marketable Debt Maturity Redux

UPDATE: the change in total marketable debt has been added (ht MrM)

Here is the end of 1Q2009 US Treasury marketable debt maturity plot - I have decided to update this quarterly - this makes the quarterly roll structure easiest to maintain and analyze.

• It is still a front end loaded beast as it ever was, only more so...


• The rate of growth for the next quarter roll doubles in six quarters (five to go!) if maintained at the 12.8% seen between the end of 4Q2008 and the end of 1Q2009


• The rate of growth for the combined front two quarters roll shows a growth rate of 10.3%, which is weighted to the first quarter

The post showing the EOY 2008 maturity plot:

http://energyecon.blogspot.com/2009/01/treasury-marketable-debt-maturity.html

EMRATIO Rate of Change and CIVPART-EMRATIO Update

OK the rate of change YoY for the 3 month MA of EMRATIO is officially into uncharted waters...plus an update on the CIVPART-EMRATIO spread.

The lag in the peak of the spread in the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions is not seen in previous recessions, which may be a function of structural changes in the economy (read: the hollowing out of manufacturing). Also, there are not enough data points to determine a trend, but it appears that the lag is lengthening in duration...

U-6: Year Over Year Changes - Continued Deterioration

U-6 not seasonally adjusted continues to deteriorate at an accelerating pace on a Year Over Year basis. Also, the Month Over Month January-March change violates the seasonal directionality of the last ten years (a 0.8% increase vs. -0.6 decrease on average excluding this year).

Fast Food Stamps for Scone

Well the discussion in CR on a reference to food stamp enrollment went the way I roll - what does the *data* show us - here without further ado is the year over year change in inidvidual food stamp enrollment for the very limited data set available on:
http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm

EMRATIO - More Back to the Future

There I was, blissing on the latest chart and info posted on Calculated Risk, and the point was made by the commentariat (ht Evil Henry Paulson IIRC) that EMRATIO was the real tell regarding the state of the economy in the US...so I had to update my CIVPART-EMRATIO spread chart, which shows continued widening.

But then I got to thinking about the change in EMRATIO, so I smoothed things a bit by making a 3 Month Moving Average, and then took the Year Over Year change in that to generate the second plot. For rate of change, this recession is in there with the best of them and out does the double dip of the 80's - what it does not have (so far) is duration...