Rolling 12 Month Total - UE Final Payments

This is another case where the data had to be copy-pasted into a .csv and then imported into a spreadsheet to make the plot...it is the 12 month rolling total number of final UE benefit payment recipients, i.e. folks who have exhausted their standard 26 weeks of unemployment benefits over the previous year.

What struck me was the change in character of the peak count curve over time - what is quite a sharp peak after the first recession in the '70's (recall it is a twelve month total, so it will lag) becomes a somewhat broader peak in the double dip recession of the '80's, then it changes character significantly in the '90's recession becoming a much blunter and broader peak - and the final transformation into a plateau after the first recession of the '00's (double oughts?).

The question being, should the progression continue as the changes in the curve shape reflect broad changes in the makeup of the US economy and work force? And would that mean an even broader plateau at a much higher level now?

Consumer Goods Imports - Year Over Year Changes

This is the M4 account from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which is the quarterly nominal dollar amount of consumer goods ex-automobiles imported into the USA, non-seasonally adjusted. It would appear to have a nice uptick in 3Q 2009...



This type of unadjusted data, which exhibits strong seasonal behavior, is best reviewed on year over year basis and we see that in the plot above. This shows the "uptick" to be essentially entirely seasonal behavior as the 3Q 2009 as compared to the 3Q 2008 was down by ~-$18 billion



One approach to normalizing the absolute dollar amounts is to compare the year over year changes on a percent basis, which is displayed in the final plot above. Overall, it makes me wonder how big a holiday sales season could be had even if end demand was there...


Data source:BEA Balance of Payments

Personal Income Less Transfer Payments

So the 3rd quarter of 2009 was the start of the recovery, with a positive GDP that has been revised down once so far...looking at previous recessions and the call by NBER (using their quarterly dates) for the start and end of recessions, unless the private income less transfer payments starts seriously ticking up on on a year over year basis - that call may be awhile in coming...


Data sources:
BEA NIPA Tables - Section 2 Table 2.1 is the one you want
NBER Recession Dates

Consumer Credit - Continued Declines

Quick plot ginned up on FRED - what we see appears to be a continuing acceleration in the year over year decline in revolving consumer credit... ho ho ho...

Industrial Production - Capacity and Utilization Rate

We just had the latest industrial capacity utilization rate released, with a microscopic 0.1% uptick in capacity utilization month over month...but are things getting busier, or are we shedding capacity faster?



This is a look at the year over year change in the industrial capacity from the Fed, using the total index. Looks like we set another record here...

Year Over Year Change in Total Revolving Credit Outstanding

This is total revolving credit, non-seasonally adjusted. When you look at the data month over month there is strong seasonality exhibited, so the non-seasonally adjusted numbers are best viewed year over year.

When the retail season is considered, let's look at private wage income, revolving credit and...? Any suggestions welcome to answer the question, "Show me the money?" - what the heck are consumers going to spend?

Personal Income: Private Wages Year Over Year Change

An assertion was made regarding private sector wages going up - can't see it from this data from NIPA Table 2.1...