So I was looking at the Philly Fed conincident indices for the states on Calculated Risk this morning, and it got me to thinking I wanted to dig into the numbers... (usually when the trouble starts). Above, we have the 1 month and 3 month diffusion indices for the state coincident indices from the Philly Fed.
I wanted to see more trend activity and reduce the noise, so I took the 3 month diffusion index and examined the quarter over quarter (or 3 month) change in that value, plotted against NBER called recessions in the time series data available.
Conclusion: I observe a change of -50, a value that has previously only been represented in recessions.
A quick look at motor gasoline prices, trying to assess whether the cumulative impact of the price trajectory has been more severe than in 2008. This appears likely, though it will be a long grind down. Using the monthly price series for all grades of gasoline from the EIA, and looking at the 12 month moving average (MA). It surpassed the 12 month MA peak from 2008 10 months ago and has stayed there since.